Economic uncertainty is once again making headlines, and with increased talk of a potential slowdown, many homeowners and prospective buyers here in the Inland Empire are asking the same question: What does this mean for our local housing market?
First, a Look at the Data
It’s a common assumption that a recession equals falling home prices—but history tells a more nuanced story. Looking at the past six recessions, home prices actually increased in four of them. The 2008 housing crash was an outlier, largely caused by an oversupply of homes and risky lending practices—not simply the economic downturn itself.
How Does This Apply Locally?
Right now, in San Bernardino and Riverside counties, we’re seeing a market that’s still relatively stable. Inventory remains tight, especially for entry-level homes, and demand is being sustained by steady population growth, investor activity, and families moving inland from more expensive coastal areas.
While price appreciation has normalized compared to the rapid gains we saw in 2021–2022, we are not seeing significant price drops. In fact, many neighborhoods continue to experience modest gains year-over-year. The most notable shift has been in longer days on market and more price adjustments—signs of a market rebalancing, not crashing.
What About Mortgage Rates?
Economic slowdowns are often accompanied by falling interest rates, and we’ve seen some softening in rates recently. While we’re unlikely to see the 3% rates of the past, even a modest dip can make a noticeable difference in monthly payments—and buyer motivation.
Bottom Line for Inland Empire Buyers and Sellers
A slowdown doesn’t automatically translate to declining home values—especially not in high-demand, supply-constrained areas like ours. If you’re a buyer, a more balanced market means more negotiating power and time to make decisions. If you’re a seller, pricing strategically and preparing your home thoughtfully is key.
Want to know what your home is worth in today’s market?
Thinking about buying while rates are easing?
Let’s connect—I’m happy to help you make informed decisions based on facts, not fear.
